Content Insider #114 – 6Sight
Content Everywhere…In What Form, What Format?
By Andy Marken
Photos grab moment.
Videos/movies tell stories.
The challenge is to figure out which one the market will want (or get) in the next 3, 5, 10 years.
That sorta sums up the annual information-rich 6Sight Conference in Monterey, CA.
Sure there are a few of the boring “gee we’re great” company sessions but for the most part the event keeps a clear focus on the light at the end of the tunnel …information, imaging, communications convergence.
The Broad Brush
The chip industry has long had its Moore’s Law (transistors double every two years). Not to be outdone the imaging industry has (Barry) Hendy’s Law – pixels per dollar.
Figure 1 - Laws of the Land – Moore’s Law (l) of computer power increases has been around since 1958. Hendry’s since 1998. Image sensor price/performance is very good but not quite keeping pace with the chip industry.Sources – Wikipedia, PMA
The microprocessor industry ships over 400M units a year and 10B embedded microprocessors a year. The imaging industry ships over 100M photo/video devices annually and 1B camphones.
Obviously photo/video folks have some catching up to do.
In addition to dropping them into cameras, camcorders and phones they plan to put cheap and ultra small complete and general purpose units …everywhere!
Chris Aubuchon of Tessera gave attendees a look at what could be possible when you get image sensors wafer level small, power conservative, onboard intelligent and cheap.
As he said, “If it can be done, it will!”
Ok so he sees cameras everywhere.
But if the industry can come close to Hendy’s Law units could be used for:
TV – gesture control and personalized settings, content/lighting settings
Autos – safety, lane change detection, passenger monitoring, security systems
Toys – speech/emotional detection/personalization
Advertising – crowd/demographic settings, content control/modification
Home – security, family monitoring, personalized settings, safety
Public – security, foot and auto traffic flow, activity monitoring
The British already complain about their images being captured at least 300 times a day.
If Aubuchon’s vision turns into reality we may have to give up eating, going to the bathroom and having…ever again!
Figure 2 - Photo Panel – Beyond megapixels, camera manufacturers continue to add features and capabilities to encourage and expand sales. Panel members are (L-R): Paul Worthington, Future Image; Chuck Westfall, Canon; Daniel Grotta, DigitalBenchmarks; Gregg Vandivert, Kodak; Darin Pepple, Fujifilm; Dr. Goulin Ma, DxO Labs
Capturing Today, Tomorrow
It became painfully obvious that professional and casual consumers wanted/expected more for less…even if they didn’t need it, didn’t know how to use it.
Camera sales peaked a year ago and while initial projections showed a slight increase, analysts felt the market would be flat or even drop a little.
Figure 3 - Flat to Down – Cameras and camcorders hit their peak in ’07 and were expect to be flat or down slightly in ’08. While compact unit sales are falling off, single lens reflex (SLR) unit sales remain strong. Source -- PMA
NPD noted that there was a total 76 percent camera penetration in the US, 74 percent compacts and 10 percent SLR (single lens reflex). Globally, Gfk said sales rose from 126M units (+18%) in ’07 to 140M (+11%) in ’08. InfoTrends noted that device sales would remain static or experience a slight increase in ’09.
To stimulate demand there’s a growing stress on delivering higher resolution, increased sensitivity, speed/performance, packaging style, in-camera processing, overall ease-of-use.
Two years ago the average resolution was 5MP. It jumped to 7+MP last year and this year it’s 10MP. Tomorrow ?
Figure 4 - MP Race – Since no manufacturer will blink in delivering greater megapixel performance, the median resolution continues to grow from 5 to 7 to 10MP. Source -- NPD
While the panelists agree that more MP is so much BS, no one is willing to blink in the MP race.
Devices with 50MP and AVCHD capture just mean more storage requirements.
But RED’s 261MP camera seems a little over the top unless you make your living using this instrument.
Higher resolution units are sitting in the wings.
Raising the bar on MP resolution also causes sensitivity problems.
New devices have increased computational power to reduce noise, improve low-light sensitivity and reduce blur.
Early digital camera users hated the horrendous click-to-capture shutter lag.
Today it’s pretty difficult to see any difference in devices.
Speed and performance are expected.
Manufacturers continue to push the envelope with five - seven frames-per-second (fps).
Leave it to RED their camera captures 120 RAW fps and some of the leading edge movie cameras capture 1,000 + fps.
It’s seems ironic that the industry talks about device specs in old-fashioned photography terminology.
Younger videographers never “used” them and you get a blank stare when you discuss them with normal consumers.
It was agreed that added capabilities and functions would include onboard computer editing capabilities to help make even photos/videos “viewable.”
Cameras/camcorders are available with computerized features:
enhanced scene and face/smile/blink detection
facial/ shadow enhancement
object/image tracking
red-eye, complexion modification
High dynamic range (HDR) luminescent/image techniques
We’re not certain who but firms that leap to the next level will deliver:
automated face recognition/labeling
GPS geo-tagging
Automated means of finding either of these without searching every folder, every image
Analyst Check
Figure 5 - Near Term, Long Term -- The industry’s leading camera/video/imaging industry analysts gathered on the stage at the 6Sight to discuss the industry’s challenges and opportunities for the short term (thru ‘09) as well as long term (2011). They all were in agreement on the issues, just not the priority order. Source – Kristy Holch
Kristy Holch, one of the founders of InfoTrends, moderated a blue ribbon analyst roundtable to give attendees the 30,000 ft view of issues, opportunities and challenges.
Key execs from Lyra, InfoTrends, Gfk, NPD, PMA and Future Image had similar crystal ball visions of 2011.
While they agreed on the challenges for’09, their priorities were all over the scale:
- Economy
HD – living room
Telling stories with images
Camera types (emerging, DSLR, compact)
Video/still convergence
Image management, preservation, retrieval
Content infrastructure, connected experiences
Tagging/sorting/managing images
That’s what makes the industry interesting.
Veni, Video, Vici
Figure 6 - Helping Hand – Executives in the video session agreed that most of the video content captured – phone, camera or camcorder – seldom moves from the device to storage to viewing. Education seems to be the key. Panel members (L-R): Paul Worthington, Future Image; Stephan Cote, Arcsoft; Chuck Westfall, Canon; Andrei Andrievsky, Kodak and Tanguy Leborgne, Pinnacle
Today, nearly every camera shoots video and every camcorder shoots video.
The two devices coexist in the consumer market. In the professional and prosumer markets there are clear distinctions.
Paul Worthington, moderator and FutureImage analyst, set the stage by noting that video is the most powerful communications tool available. Anyone can access the tools to capture, view, distribute high quality video.
He said good VGA content can be captured with cameras, camcorders and even camphones but few people do anything more than file it…somewhere.
Tanguy Leborgne, VP of worldwide marketing for Pinnacle, made a distinction between photos and videos.
“Photos capture a moment, videos tell a story – HD on the TV screen or VGA on YouTube,” he noted.
People want to tell their story,” he continued, “but non-professionals don’t have the training or self-discipline to think through, begin and end the story.”
He noted it’s not a daunting task but the thought and flow functions are foreign to average users.
“Our task as hardware and software providers is to help them break hurdles and help them produce really interesting videos,” he added. “They may never produce a Hollywood spectacular but at least they will be movies for their family, their church, their school, their neighbors that they can be proud of. When they do that…we make the world a more beautiful place.”
Content Calls
Tony Henning, senior analyst at Future Image, referred back to the camera market update and noted that while camera/camcorder sales were flat in the established markets and increasing only slightly in the emerging market, which certainly wasn’t the case for camphones.
As with most people, he credits the iPhone in turning the “nice to have” feature of camphones to a requirement.
The growth inhibitors for camphones has been poor image quality, awkward hardware design, nearly impossible software, poor transfer options, slow/spotty networks and overly expensive data plans.
But in looking at sites like Flickr that tracks the type of device photos and videos are uploaded from, the iPhone leads the pack by more than 3:1!
Despite the introduction of a wide range of iPhone “competitors,” the recently introduced Motorola Motozine comes close to being a serious camera/camcorder/phone.
Henning sees a steady increase in camphone resolution and at this stage he feels pixels do matter.
Figure 7 - Phone Resolution – For the younger crowd better quality photos, even with their camphones, is important. As a result, resolution increases continue to improve. Soon they’ll be looking for intelligent units with advanced capabilities as well. Source – Future Image
He believes in the next year or two we will see camphones with:
Auto-focus mechanisms
Improved video including VGA at 30fps, slow-mo, fast-mo, HD
DSC features including anti-shake, face/smile/blink detection, red-eye reduction, panorama/scene modes and more
Larger, tighter displays with richer color palettes
Geo-tagging
Complete connectivity options
Shrinking Pixels
Henning’s projections were probable music to Tessera’s Aubuchon ears who showed the audience how the industry had progressed from Apple’s 1994 Quicktake 100 to today’s cameras, camcorders, camphones and next generation modules.
Figure 8 - Size Doesn’t Matter – There is a world of difference between Apple’s 1994 QuickTake 100 imaging sensor electronics and today’s advanced chip level units (the spec at the right). Source -- Tessera
Back then the image sensors were 9 micro millimeters costing about $20 per module. Today they are 1.75 um costing about $2.30 per VGA module.
While camphones have stimulated the development of smaller, more integrated, more intelligent mechanisms; he sees a world of “camera” opportunities in the years ahead.
The new compact imaging sensors are only the tip of the iceberg in his estimation thanks to significant research including:
Sub-wavelength pixel research sub-500 nm at Stanford U
Color filter, complex optical integrated color pixels at Stanford U
Multi-aperture imaging/polydioptric cameras at Stanford U
Smart and OptiML algorithm optics at Tel-Aviv U
Compressive sensing/imaging at Rice U
Fast 3D Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR), photo stitching – UC Berkeley
Polynomial texture mapping - HP
Real-time image processing/generation – UC San Diego
Figure 9 - Cameras Everywhere – Extremely small imaging sensors such as those developed by Tessera will expand the performance of image capture devices (cameras, camcorders, camphones) and lower costs. The range of applications for camera and camera modules will continue to expand with each new generation of hardware and software. It’s all in the palm of the hand. Source -- Tessera
He added that there are hundreds of photo and video research projects that will place will put cameras…everywhere!
Figure 10 - Dining Atmosphere – While the information and contacts made possible by the 6Sight Conference, show management wants attendees to enjoy memorable meals as well. It would be difficult to top dinner at the Monterey Aquarium surrounded by animals and vegetation from the sea. Source – 6Sight/Future Image
During the dinner reception at the Monterey Aquarium, Alexis Gerard (founder of Future Image) noted that the content industry is growing in both depth and breadth.
“There are some outstanding solutions being introduced for professional and prosumer photographers and videographers,” he commented. “But the real excitement is the rapid improvement of and merging of imaging and communications technologies that is being put into use by normal people around the globe.
“Photos and videos are really the universal language that make ideas and things easy to understand no matter where you work, live or relax,” he added.
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